* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 102 104 104 101 98 96 81 60 51 26 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 102 104 104 101 98 96 81 60 51 26 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 102 104 106 102 98 93 66 53 47 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 6 6 9 14 13 20 37 65 45 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 0 2 0 5 19 15 -4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 286 267 271 269 204 237 223 214 220 200 194 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.3 27.9 27.7 25.2 14.0 12.4 9.3 10.4 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 161 165 158 138 137 113 75 73 69 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 144 148 141 122 124 104 73 71 68 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -51.2 -50.4 -49.9 -46.8 -44.4 -42.0 -43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 3.4 2.2 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 53 55 55 57 56 51 58 54 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 37 37 37 36 39 34 27 30 20 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 0 -3 2 -4 0 -15 30 94 245 308 300 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 49 57 34 25 40 36 74 91 152 116 -34 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 -3 -6 1 13 35 8 -36 54 -262 -118 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1246 1270 1304 1356 1422 1234 853 476 31 632 1137 1358 1472 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.2 32.8 36.6 41.6 47.3 53.2 58.7 62.1 63.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.8 58.5 59.4 60.3 61.6 61.1 58.0 52.5 46.4 40.5 35.4 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 16 23 31 35 34 26 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 38 39 36 28 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -25. -36. -44. -52. -59. -62. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -1. -7. -19. -16. -31. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -19. -40. -49. -74. -75. -80. -84. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.2 57.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 716.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.19 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 9.7% 7.5% 7.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.5% 6.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.5% 4.4% 3.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 12.0% 12.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/08/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 26( 56) 23( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 25( 35) 14( 44) 0( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 102 104 104 101 98 96 81 60 51 26 25 20 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 100 102 102 99 96 94 79 58 49 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 98 95 92 90 75 54 45 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 87 84 82 67 46 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 78 75 73 58 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 80 77 75 60 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 102 93 87 83 80 78 63 42 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS