* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 103 105 105 104 101 98 88 67 44 39 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 103 105 105 104 101 98 88 65 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 101 102 104 106 106 100 97 80 56 47 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 7 8 6 12 13 13 37 54 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 2 17 19 11 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 272 289 253 245 212 218 251 222 209 211 214 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 28.3 27.7 27.5 18.6 9.7 11.0 9.3 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 161 165 143 136 136 82 71 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 138 143 147 126 120 123 78 69 68 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 -47.8 -44.5 -43.1 -44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 51 53 53 57 54 59 52 55 53 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 37 38 38 38 38 38 36 29 22 27 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 0 0 5 11 -13 23 58 239 292 256 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 27 32 37 44 51 31 49 106 163 95 85 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -8 -9 5 29 45 15 -85 21 -184 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1250 1278 1312 1356 1376 1037 707 268 227 743 1168 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.2 29.1 31.6 34.7 38.8 44.4 50.1 55.2 58.8 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.5 57.1 57.8 58.6 59.4 61.0 61.5 59.8 55.7 50.6 45.0 40.0 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 15 18 26 33 32 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 38 38 38 36 21 13 24 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -14. -23. -33. -42. -49. -56. -60. -61. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -16. -28. -22. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -12. -33. -56. -61. -85. -88. -91. -93. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.4 56.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 794.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 9.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 16.9% 10.6% 8.6% 5.1% 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.4% 10.7% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 12.5% 7.2% 3.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/08/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 27( 57) 26( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 18( 22) 9( 29) 2( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 103 105 105 104 101 98 88 65 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 101 103 103 102 99 96 86 63 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 98 97 94 91 81 58 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 89 86 83 73 50 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 77 74 64 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 81 78 75 65 42 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 103 94 88 84 81 78 68 45 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS