* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 103 105 105 107 106 100 99 84 71 63 32 27 23 20 15 V (KT) LAND 100 101 103 105 105 107 106 100 99 84 71 63 32 27 23 20 15 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 100 102 104 108 103 97 90 67 56 47 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 3 5 6 8 8 10 16 12 28 51 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 3 -1 8 21 13 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 269 289 230 221 215 186 218 237 216 193 190 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.0 27.9 27.7 25.1 14.3 12.6 10.2 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 156 163 153 138 137 112 75 72 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 139 146 136 121 122 103 72 70 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.7 -50.1 -51.0 -50.5 -49.2 -46.3 -44.4 -45.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 3.8 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 50 54 54 56 59 57 53 49 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 37 37 38 40 37 39 36 35 37 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -18 -3 3 8 15 10 38 123 265 273 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 54 37 27 44 51 54 56 68 118 165 94 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 -2 0 1 11 27 43 -74 -27 -76 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1252 1252 1262 1277 1304 1445 1186 833 495 21 591 920 1152 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.4 27.3 28.2 30.5 33.3 36.8 41.5 47.1 52.7 56.8 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.5 57.1 58.0 58.8 60.5 61.5 61.1 57.8 52.7 47.0 42.9 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 22 30 33 29 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 39 38 39 41 25 17 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -14. -20. -30. -38. -46. -53. -56. -58. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. -0. 2. -3. -6. -4. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. -0. -1. -15. -29. -37. -68. -73. -77. -80. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.8 55.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 803.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 7.8% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.8% 5.1% 3.1% 2.0% 3.3% 4.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 27( 57) 27( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 12( 15) 25( 36) 5( 39) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 103 105 105 107 106 100 99 84 71 63 32 27 23 20 15 18HR AGO 100 99 101 103 103 105 104 98 97 82 69 61 30 25 21 18 DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 98 100 99 93 92 77 64 56 25 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 92 91 85 84 69 56 48 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 82 76 75 60 47 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 83 82 76 75 60 47 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 103 94 88 84 83 77 76 61 48 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS