* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 99 100 102 103 101 98 94 87 66 59 42 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 98 99 100 102 103 101 98 94 87 66 59 42 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 96 97 99 104 105 98 91 74 56 49 43 37 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 4 1 6 13 17 14 21 33 50 48 60 62 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 1 18 22 7 5 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 303 267 233 296 191 197 211 241 235 214 189 213 213 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.7 28.3 27.7 27.5 18.1 10.8 11.1 9.3 10.6 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 150 152 156 165 143 136 136 81 71 69 68 70 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 134 136 140 147 126 121 124 77 70 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.9 -49.9 -48.0 -44.7 -44.4 -46.1 -48.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 3.8 1.8 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 49 51 53 57 57 64 53 51 51 51 53 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 37 37 38 38 38 38 37 36 29 31 27 17 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -15 -11 -12 0 24 15 4 43 64 237 282 234 178 109 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 52 56 32 41 55 17 70 74 78 148 108 71 -100 -139 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 2 6 3 -1 4 27 34 27 -32 -32 -113 -79 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1250 1237 1233 1240 1259 1351 1352 1021 662 234 308 757 1100 1317 1445 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.4 27.2 29.3 31.7 34.8 39.3 44.7 50.3 55.0 58.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.0 56.6 57.4 58.1 59.9 61.3 61.7 59.6 55.1 49.5 44.7 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 19 27 33 31 24 23 26 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 54 41 39 39 34 24 12 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -6. -13. -19. -27. -35. -42. -50. -57. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. -7. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -17. -15. -20. -34. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -13. -34. -41. -58. -84.-103.-105.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.0 55.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 834.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 9.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5% 2.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/07/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 24( 53) 25( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 8( 11) 24( 32) 15( 42) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 99 100 102 103 101 98 94 87 66 59 42 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 100 101 103 104 102 99 95 88 67 60 43 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 99 100 98 95 91 84 63 56 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 93 91 88 84 77 56 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 80 77 73 66 45 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 79 77 74 70 63 42 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 99 90 84 80 78 75 71 64 43 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS