* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 103 104 105 104 102 96 93 78 74 55 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 103 104 105 104 102 96 93 78 74 55 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 103 102 102 103 107 110 106 97 91 69 57 47 38 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 4 6 3 8 16 17 17 31 53 58 62 61 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 -1 12 22 9 0 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 289 315 318 279 23 226 209 243 233 223 198 184 176 166 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.2 27.6 26.7 14.6 12.7 9.6 10.0 10.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 152 152 159 161 156 141 135 128 76 73 69 66 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 136 135 142 144 138 124 121 117 73 71 67 64 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.0 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -50.8 -49.9 -48.0 -45.7 -45.0 -46.0 -48.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.3 2.0 0.9 3.3 1.8 5.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 47 50 54 56 60 64 60 52 46 50 45 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 36 38 37 38 38 39 37 38 35 41 36 26 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -15 -10 -5 15 6 16 26 52 133 258 271 204 137 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 28 49 67 49 34 28 76 55 85 137 126 111 0 -127 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 4 2 7 0 3 20 25 37 -69 -46 -147 -98 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1266 1242 1227 1228 1240 1293 1417 1215 863 513 31 625 1100 1416 1483 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.6 26.4 28.2 30.3 33.0 36.4 41.1 47.0 52.8 57.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.5 56.1 56.8 57.4 59.0 60.7 61.6 61.4 58.3 52.6 46.5 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 22 31 35 33 25 14 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 52 51 41 45 43 29 20 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -22. -28. -36. -44. -51. -59. -64. -66. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 2. -2. -6. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -4. -9. -2. -9. -24. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -3. -9. -12. -27. -31. -50. -77. -95. -98.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.4 54.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 898.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 5.3% 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 2.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/07/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 26( 59) 27( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 11( 16) 34( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 103 104 105 104 102 96 93 78 74 55 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 104 105 106 105 103 97 94 79 75 56 29 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 103 104 103 101 95 92 77 73 54 27 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 97 96 94 88 85 70 66 47 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 87 86 84 78 75 60 56 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 84 83 81 75 72 57 53 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 82 80 74 71 56 52 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS