* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/07/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 105 105 105 104 104 98 93 87 82 74 46 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 105 105 105 104 104 98 93 87 82 74 46 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 107 105 108 110 109 101 94 82 66 56 44 40 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 11 7 6 2 13 17 15 20 39 36 53 67 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -3 -3 1 -2 4 5 13 14 5 11 7 1 20 SHEAR DIR 251 278 289 304 309 10 235 208 221 230 234 213 177 190 192 187 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.7 29.4 28.7 27.7 27.4 19.4 11.7 12.0 10.2 10.1 10.7 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 150 150 152 165 159 148 136 134 84 72 71 67 66 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 134 134 136 147 141 130 120 122 79 71 69 65 64 66 67 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.8 -49.7 -47.9 -46.3 -45.9 -47.7 -49.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.2 3.9 5.0 2.5 4.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 46 47 47 48 51 56 61 58 66 64 61 58 52 36 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 38 36 38 37 37 39 38 38 40 43 45 33 24 28 16 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -8 -13 -7 7 23 14 -10 34 90 195 260 254 184 73 76 200 MB DIV -4 -19 29 31 50 29 54 33 40 84 80 132 91 72 23 -132 -176 700-850 TADV 7 5 3 0 2 0 -3 11 16 14 -4 -28 -83 -123 -38 -79 27 LAND (KM) 1293 1268 1252 1234 1225 1276 1355 1362 1034 721 333 253 856 1202 1442 1468 1282 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.6 27.4 29.3 31.7 34.7 38.7 43.8 49.0 54.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.8 55.4 56.1 56.8 58.1 59.8 61.1 61.6 59.7 55.3 49.6 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 14 18 26 31 33 27 17 15 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 30 38 52 49 41 44 33 26 14 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -25. -32. -40. -48. -55. -63. -69. -74. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -3. 1. 2. -13. -25. -20. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -12. -17. -23. -28. -36. -64. -90. -96.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.7 54.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1003.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 4.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 2.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/07/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/07/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 27( 62) 27( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 27( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 107 105 105 105 104 104 98 93 87 82 74 46 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 107 105 105 105 104 104 98 93 87 82 74 46 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 104 104 103 103 97 92 86 81 73 45 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 100 99 99 93 88 82 77 69 41 15 DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 91 90 90 84 79 73 68 60 32 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 90 89 89 83 78 72 67 59 31 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 109 107 98 92 88 87 87 81 76 70 65 57 29 DIS DIS DIS