* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 107 106 104 107 105 104 98 93 86 81 57 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 107 106 104 107 105 104 98 93 86 81 57 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 110 108 106 105 105 110 111 107 99 94 74 58 43 34 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 10 8 7 2 7 14 18 20 41 59 50 51 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 1 -5 1 -5 0 -2 9 19 8 6 14 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 252 261 284 298 305 280 125 197 189 234 234 225 191 173 169 189 207 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.9 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.3 27.6 27.2 16.3 13.3 11.4 10.5 10.2 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 147 151 150 160 161 158 143 135 133 78 73 67 65 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 132 136 133 143 143 140 126 121 121 75 70 65 63 64 65 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -49.7 -50.5 -49.5 -47.8 -45.8 -47.4 -49.2 -51.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.3 4.7 4.5 1.8 3.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 47 48 51 57 58 63 65 61 48 39 46 36 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 38 37 37 35 39 38 40 39 39 42 48 39 25 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 -10 -9 -11 -9 18 6 25 28 65 120 234 197 127 53 -7 200 MB DIV 27 14 0 25 47 31 27 52 64 55 72 85 56 75 26 -7 -55 700-850 TADV 3 8 5 5 6 2 -1 0 17 23 42 -60 -63 -43 -37 -55 -18 LAND (KM) 1334 1303 1280 1252 1232 1248 1293 1410 1213 870 543 79 604 977 1117 1346 1524 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.0 26.5 28.2 30.2 32.8 36.3 40.8 46.0 51.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.6 54.2 54.8 55.5 56.2 57.4 59.0 60.6 62.0 61.5 58.3 52.9 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 16 21 29 35 29 15 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 40 53 48 45 43 29 22 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -18. -24. -31. -36. -43. -51. -59. -65. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 2. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. -0. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. 0. -2. -0. -3. -3. 0. 7. -6. -22. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -3. -5. -6. -12. -17. -24. -29. -53. -82. -99.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.2 53.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 993.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.8% 2.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/06/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 27( 63) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) 10( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 109 107 106 104 107 105 104 98 93 86 81 57 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 106 105 103 106 104 103 97 92 85 80 56 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 103 101 104 102 101 95 90 83 78 54 25 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 97 100 98 97 91 86 79 74 50 21 DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 89 92 90 89 83 78 71 66 42 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 88 91 89 88 82 77 70 65 41 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 110 109 100 94 90 93 91 90 84 79 72 67 43 DIS DIS DIS