* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 104 103 103 102 103 101 99 95 88 80 70 43 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 104 103 103 102 103 101 99 95 88 80 70 43 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 103 101 99 98 98 103 106 106 100 94 81 63 51 38 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 9 9 3 5 2 6 16 15 29 51 50 41 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 2 -1 -2 0 -1 0 6 17 8 -3 3 -8 2 SHEAR DIR 255 276 265 287 305 336 38 226 160 226 225 230 199 167 145 162 191 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.6 29.3 28.7 27.7 27.3 20.6 12.7 14.7 12.9 11.3 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 147 150 153 163 158 148 135 132 88 72 71 68 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 129 132 134 136 145 140 130 120 118 82 70 68 65 65 66 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -48.9 -46.8 -46.6 -51.3 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 2.3 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 41 44 46 47 50 53 58 63 62 62 52 38 36 35 45 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 37 38 36 37 37 38 37 38 38 39 41 41 29 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -14 -11 -11 -16 -12 3 21 17 5 46 100 182 205 95 -4 -15 200 MB DIV 6 23 20 16 30 50 37 65 53 79 111 86 71 16 -8 5 23 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 3 4 1 -1 -7 7 33 26 32 -60 -35 -18 6 23 LAND (KM) 1422 1376 1337 1301 1272 1269 1297 1379 1367 1046 735 423 352 780 1091 1345 1449 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.9 27.5 29.4 31.7 34.7 38.6 43.0 47.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.3 53.9 54.6 55.3 56.5 57.9 59.5 61.0 61.2 59.6 55.1 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 13 18 24 31 29 20 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 31 40 51 40 43 32 25 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. -37. -44. -52. -58. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. 1. -1. -0. -1. -2. 1. 1. -16. -29. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -35. -62. -83. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.8 52.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 984.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/06/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 25( 59) 25( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 104 104 103 103 102 103 101 99 95 88 80 70 43 22 DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 104 104 103 103 102 103 101 99 95 88 80 70 43 22 DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 100 100 99 100 98 96 92 85 77 67 40 19 DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 94 93 94 92 90 86 79 71 61 34 DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 86 85 86 84 82 78 71 63 53 26 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 86 85 86 84 82 78 71 63 53 26 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 104 104 95 89 85 84 85 83 81 77 70 62 52 25 DIS DIS