* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 110 110 106 104 104 103 103 102 98 89 76 59 47 41 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 110 110 106 104 104 103 103 102 98 89 76 59 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 110 109 104 101 101 103 107 102 94 81 60 48 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 13 7 7 9 5 6 8 1 19 14 21 35 45 40 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 0 3 0 -4 -4 2 -4 0 12 5 3 0 12 SHEAR DIR 254 264 267 280 267 294 307 322 267 155 217 235 217 215 235 236 190 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.1 27.6 23.9 16.7 14.2 14.5 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 156 156 150 147 148 157 161 153 140 135 102 77 72 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 143 141 136 131 132 139 142 133 122 120 92 73 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -51.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 44 46 50 53 56 59 65 63 58 51 50 51 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 35 37 38 38 39 38 39 41 40 38 35 29 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 14 4 0 -12 -9 -10 -6 4 22 29 10 0 -15 37 72 78 -6 200 MB DIV 15 13 3 25 28 14 57 31 62 33 57 67 95 74 57 48 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 5 3 2 2 0 -8 6 21 19 26 -3 -5 9 16 LAND (KM) 1534 1486 1414 1367 1324 1254 1239 1270 1341 1395 1127 827 513 131 545 1009 1400 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.0 24.4 25.8 27.4 29.2 31.4 33.9 37.4 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 51.8 52.7 53.3 54.0 55.5 56.8 58.2 59.9 61.0 61.3 59.9 56.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 15 21 26 27 25 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 45 41 35 52 39 43 34 27 20 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -18. -23. -29. -34. -37. -43. -50. -56. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. 2. 6. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 3. -2. -6. -14. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -12. -21. -34. -51. -63. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.7 51.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1009.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 2.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/06/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 29( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 109 110 110 106 104 104 103 103 102 98 89 76 59 47 41 18HR AGO 110 109 108 109 109 105 103 103 102 102 101 97 88 75 58 46 40 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 107 103 101 101 100 100 99 95 86 73 56 44 38 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 96 94 94 93 93 92 88 79 66 49 37 31 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 85 85 84 84 83 79 70 57 40 28 22 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 89 87 87 86 86 85 81 72 59 42 30 24 IN 12HR 110 110 109 100 94 90 88 88 87 87 86 82 73 60 43 31 25