* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 107 105 102 99 101 101 104 102 97 93 85 68 52 46 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 107 105 102 99 101 101 104 102 97 93 85 68 52 46 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 112 111 110 104 100 99 103 108 104 97 90 71 53 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 12 12 10 9 6 7 18 14 18 23 20 21 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 -5 -2 -4 -4 0 7 15 20 11 11 SHEAR DIR 250 250 260 265 259 288 283 293 248 219 198 223 202 222 220 243 203 SST (C) 28.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.7 27.6 19.5 13.5 18.6 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 152 155 156 154 147 148 150 161 156 145 136 136 83 72 79 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 143 143 141 139 132 132 133 142 136 126 120 121 78 70 73 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -49.7 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -49.8 -50.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 47 46 51 52 56 59 60 61 59 53 47 34 33 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 36 36 35 36 37 39 40 42 43 41 40 40 33 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 0 -8 -15 -10 -15 -8 13 18 32 24 20 20 35 93 62 200 MB DIV 20 0 0 7 12 3 48 44 46 67 41 65 104 133 98 19 32 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 0 0 5 6 2 -6 16 7 37 23 17 19 12 LAND (KM) 1551 1539 1470 1419 1374 1295 1266 1272 1335 1449 1247 935 609 339 416 888 1299 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.8 24.0 25.4 26.8 28.6 30.5 32.6 35.7 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.2 52.1 52.8 53.4 54.8 56.1 57.4 58.9 60.4 61.7 61.4 59.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 19 24 28 27 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 42 44 39 44 42 41 37 28 23 13 35 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -19. -24. -30. -34. -37. -41. -48. -54. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -10. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -9. -9. -6. -8. -13. -17. -25. -42. -58. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.1 50.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1000.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 3.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/05/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 27( 63) 24( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 7( 10) 4( 13) 10( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 109 107 105 102 99 101 101 104 102 97 93 85 68 52 46 18HR AGO 110 109 108 106 104 101 98 100 100 103 101 96 92 84 67 51 45 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 102 99 96 98 98 101 99 94 90 82 65 49 43 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 95 92 94 94 97 95 90 86 78 61 45 39 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 85 87 87 90 88 83 79 71 54 38 32 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 88 85 87 87 90 88 83 79 71 54 38 32 IN 12HR 110 110 109 100 94 90 87 89 89 92 90 85 81 73 56 40 34