* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 107 105 103 101 101 100 104 103 103 98 89 73 61 54 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 107 105 103 101 101 100 104 103 103 98 89 73 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 109 109 107 103 103 103 106 109 103 95 80 58 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 11 11 9 8 5 6 3 11 13 21 28 61 47 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 0 2 1 4 0 -1 1 -4 0 -4 5 -12 -9 5 SHEAR DIR 249 251 266 276 273 286 299 284 297 297 206 225 233 219 228 248 207 SST (C) 27.6 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.0 27.9 27.7 20.6 12.3 14.0 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 138 149 153 156 150 147 148 157 161 153 138 138 88 72 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 138 142 143 135 132 132 140 143 135 121 124 82 70 69 66 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.6 -51.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 6 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 51 50 52 55 58 59 61 64 59 63 51 41 38 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 34 36 35 36 38 40 40 43 43 45 43 42 38 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 34 19 15 2 -5 -10 -7 -1 9 24 35 8 16 46 100 -44 -45 200 MB DIV 32 30 -5 0 7 20 39 63 20 38 43 7 89 47 48 4 23 700-850 TADV -4 1 1 0 1 3 5 3 10 5 8 16 10 -27 -15 22 11 LAND (KM) 1558 1526 1504 1476 1409 1297 1243 1209 1246 1346 1370 1050 742 400 294 825 1247 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.2 29.2 31.5 34.6 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.2 51.1 51.9 52.7 54.2 55.5 57.0 58.3 59.8 61.3 61.4 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 13 14 17 24 32 31 24 20 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 38 41 46 34 51 40 44 34 28 16 27 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -11. -19. -25. -29. -33. -37. -40. -46. -52. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 1. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 9. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 5. 6. 3. 1. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -6. -7. -7. -12. -21. -37. -49. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.1 49.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 919.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 45 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/05/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 27( 63) 25( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 108 107 105 103 101 101 100 104 103 103 98 89 73 61 54 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 105 103 101 101 100 104 103 103 98 89 73 61 54 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 101 99 99 98 102 101 101 96 87 71 59 52 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 96 94 94 93 97 96 96 91 82 66 54 47 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 89 87 87 86 90 89 89 84 75 59 47 40 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 89 87 87 86 90 89 89 84 75 59 47 40 IN 12HR 110 109 108 99 93 89 87 87 86 90 89 89 84 75 59 47 40