* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 100 99 95 95 94 96 99 99 101 95 90 85 72 52 V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 100 99 95 95 94 96 99 99 101 95 90 85 72 52 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 99 97 96 94 95 99 103 105 105 101 94 88 69 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 11 9 6 7 7 9 7 5 12 18 20 34 25 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 2 3 3 2 -3 0 1 -1 -1 10 10 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 252 252 254 261 277 291 271 283 283 192 137 188 223 223 209 182 202 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.8 25.2 17.5 13.1 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 135 135 135 136 153 155 161 157 153 142 138 112 79 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 126 125 124 124 138 140 144 139 134 126 123 100 75 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -49.7 -50.3 -49.5 -48.5 -48.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 3.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 49 51 51 56 55 60 64 62 65 66 57 46 47 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 34 36 36 39 40 41 43 43 46 43 44 48 45 35 850 MB ENV VOR 45 36 22 13 1 -9 -1 -5 14 40 40 40 32 42 113 114 70 200 MB DIV 52 30 37 8 -4 12 14 53 50 57 52 50 70 129 111 121 53 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 2 1 0 3 7 7 6 4 7 3 25 -42 -21 -2 LAND (KM) 1533 1552 1528 1508 1458 1334 1244 1191 1227 1293 1423 1183 800 504 103 494 1056 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.9 28.6 30.5 33.3 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.4 50.4 51.3 52.1 53.7 55.2 56.7 58.2 59.7 61.1 61.6 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 17 22 26 30 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 32 27 31 25 48 44 46 38 26 21 25 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -23. -28. -31. -33. -36. -41. -47. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 3. 3. 7. 2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -10. -11. -9. -6. -6. -4. -10. -15. -20. -33. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.4 48.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 857.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 3 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 21( 56) 17( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 100 99 95 95 94 96 99 99 101 95 90 85 72 52 18HR AGO 105 104 103 101 100 96 96 95 97 100 100 102 96 91 86 73 53 12HR AGO 105 102 101 99 98 94 94 93 95 98 98 100 94 89 84 71 51 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 90 90 89 91 94 94 96 90 85 80 67 47 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 82 81 83 86 86 88 82 77 72 59 39 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 82 82 81 83 86 86 88 82 77 72 59 39 IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 83 82 84 87 87 89 83 78 73 60 40