* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 103 101 100 96 95 93 98 98 102 102 96 91 81 68 48 V (KT) LAND 105 104 103 101 100 96 95 93 98 98 102 102 96 91 81 68 48 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 98 96 93 92 96 99 101 102 100 93 88 74 55 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 9 11 11 11 8 7 9 11 8 20 21 27 48 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -1 4 -1 -4 -3 -2 -6 0 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 265 254 250 255 269 287 299 293 261 261 206 187 231 230 231 234 239 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.1 28.8 27.6 27.8 19.9 11.6 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 134 134 135 150 155 155 161 154 150 134 139 85 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 124 125 124 124 136 140 139 145 137 132 119 125 79 70 70 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.2 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 51 50 51 53 55 56 58 61 65 64 74 67 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 35 36 37 38 38 41 41 43 42 41 40 40 37 28 850 MB ENV VOR 60 48 42 32 23 5 2 1 6 17 37 47 25 34 26 74 69 200 MB DIV 17 38 26 35 8 0 16 28 68 44 71 67 5 103 136 95 58 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -2 0 3 1 0 2 6 6 1 1 18 15 19 -10 -25 LAND (KM) 1508 1531 1533 1502 1481 1366 1240 1162 1149 1206 1330 1318 997 674 314 193 777 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.5 27.3 29.4 31.9 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.6 49.6 50.5 51.4 53.1 54.8 56.3 57.7 59.1 60.6 61.6 61.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 12 13 14 18 25 30 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 37 34 30 35 36 49 39 45 28 23 12 36 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. -40. -45. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 9. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -6. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. -7. -7. -3. -3. -9. -14. -24. -37. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.7 47.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/05/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/05/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 25( 45) 22( 57) 19( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 103 101 100 96 95 93 98 98 102 102 96 91 81 68 48 18HR AGO 105 104 103 101 100 96 95 93 98 98 102 102 96 91 81 68 48 12HR AGO 105 102 101 99 98 94 93 91 96 96 100 100 94 89 79 66 46 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 90 89 87 92 92 96 96 90 85 75 62 42 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 81 79 84 84 88 88 82 77 67 54 34 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 83 82 80 85 85 89 89 83 78 68 55 35 IN 12HR 105 104 103 94 88 84 83 81 86 86 90 90 84 79 69 56 36