* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 109 107 103 100 100 102 103 105 103 102 98 89 80 65 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 109 107 103 100 100 102 103 105 103 102 98 89 80 64 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 108 106 103 98 96 99 102 105 106 104 101 95 89 68 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 6 5 12 6 12 8 11 11 12 11 14 21 37 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -5 -5 0 -1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 228 263 255 247 265 281 294 307 313 275 267 257 219 214 230 227 228 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.8 16.0 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 133 133 135 139 157 155 157 157 153 146 138 128 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 124 125 124 125 126 142 140 141 140 136 129 123 116 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 52 51 51 51 53 54 58 61 63 65 65 71 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 37 37 35 36 36 39 40 41 43 42 43 44 42 42 37 850 MB ENV VOR 66 58 44 41 32 17 1 0 3 14 42 30 42 11 2 11 96 200 MB DIV 22 27 34 23 30 2 1 10 45 48 66 29 44 67 115 102 94 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -5 0 2 3 3 5 3 5 5 15 -12 20 -11 -72 LAND (KM) 1495 1514 1535 1527 1490 1414 1285 1173 1116 1129 1220 1388 1150 808 479 11 623 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.2 24.6 26.2 28.1 30.3 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.6 48.7 49.7 50.7 52.5 54.1 55.7 57.3 58.8 60.2 61.5 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 21 29 36 38 HEAT CONTENT 23 36 31 37 33 39 28 45 36 38 37 25 25 28 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -28. -33. -37. -39. -41. -45. -48. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 1. 1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -7. -8. -12. -21. -30. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.1 46.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 6.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.4% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 17.0% 13.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/04/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 27( 63) 25( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 110 109 107 103 100 100 102 103 105 103 102 98 89 80 64 18HR AGO 110 109 109 108 106 102 99 99 101 102 104 102 101 97 88 79 63 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 99 96 96 98 99 101 99 98 94 85 76 60 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 94 91 91 93 94 96 94 93 89 80 71 55 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 84 84 86 87 89 87 86 82 73 64 48 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 88 85 85 87 88 90 88 87 83 74 65 49 IN 12HR 110 110 110 101 95 91 88 88 90 91 93 91 90 86 77 68 52