* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 112 112 110 107 103 102 102 103 103 102 100 98 89 81 64 V (KT) LAND 110 112 112 112 110 107 103 102 102 103 103 102 100 98 89 81 64 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 110 108 106 103 100 100 102 102 104 105 104 98 89 75 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 7 5 8 15 13 9 2 11 10 9 20 23 49 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 -6 0 -2 -7 -5 -1 0 8 14 15 SHEAR DIR 184 265 277 270 270 286 294 300 288 256 292 230 210 208 205 217 215 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.7 27.5 27.0 22.8 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 131 131 132 134 136 152 155 153 157 154 149 133 128 96 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 124 125 125 125 139 141 136 141 139 133 117 112 87 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 -50.7 -49.1 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 56 54 51 52 51 51 52 55 61 66 67 65 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 36 35 36 37 39 40 41 42 41 41 42 40 39 34 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 54 43 41 25 8 4 5 16 26 36 31 53 68 98 147 200 MB DIV 44 31 29 34 19 0 -11 -1 34 62 39 47 67 78 115 107 89 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -5 -3 1 1 0 5 4 2 0 0 20 23 1 -66 LAND (KM) 1508 1510 1523 1530 1528 1458 1341 1208 1127 1105 1138 1273 1245 910 583 377 70 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 20.3 21.4 22.5 24.0 25.4 26.8 29.0 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.3 47.4 48.4 49.5 51.6 53.3 55.0 56.7 58.2 59.5 61.0 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 11 9 10 10 9 11 15 17 18 21 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 12 21 34 32 35 31 38 37 42 35 38 24 29 16 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -24. -29. -34. -38. -39. -42. -45. -49. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 3. -1. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -21. -29. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.5 45.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 709.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 6.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.7% 2.0% 3.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 12.2% 8.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 11.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/04/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 112 112 110 107 103 102 102 103 103 102 100 98 89 81 64 18HR AGO 110 109 109 109 107 104 100 99 99 100 100 99 97 95 86 78 61 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 104 101 97 96 96 97 97 96 94 92 83 75 58 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 95 91 90 90 91 91 90 88 86 77 69 52 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 84 83 83 84 84 83 81 79 70 62 45 IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 92 88 87 87 88 88 87 85 83 74 66 49 IN 12HR 110 112 112 103 97 93 89 88 88 89 89 88 86 84 75 67 50