* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 87 90 97 101 104 105 104 108 106 107 104 103 97 95 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 87 90 97 101 104 105 104 108 106 107 104 103 97 95 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 82 84 87 91 97 100 102 101 101 105 106 106 104 99 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 10 9 7 3 4 7 11 12 12 9 19 14 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -8 -1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 226 175 96 97 94 90 126 266 299 307 312 306 279 262 235 267 226 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 122 121 123 124 129 131 137 139 155 160 163 165 163 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 120 118 121 119 124 123 127 128 141 146 146 148 142 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 64 61 58 50 49 48 49 52 56 59 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 36 36 37 38 39 40 40 43 42 44 43 45 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 62 66 80 86 88 82 79 58 45 26 17 9 0 5 3 14 56 200 MB DIV 68 61 61 71 85 70 40 15 -2 -19 7 51 32 66 94 70 29 700-850 TADV -14 -11 -8 -5 -4 -1 0 -1 -3 0 3 -1 4 5 2 20 24 LAND (KM) 1902 1811 1702 1635 1581 1511 1518 1547 1489 1369 1257 1194 1202 1278 1410 1289 1083 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.7 19.2 20.5 21.7 23.0 24.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.3 39.8 41.1 42.5 45.0 47.3 49.5 51.4 53.1 54.7 56.2 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 11 11 12 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 5 3 12 12 32 26 29 36 38 52 47 43 30 17 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 11. 10. 10. 9. 10. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 22. 26. 29. 30. 29. 33. 31. 32. 29. 28. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.9 36.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.2% 12.7% 10.2% 7.8% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 22.6% 13.2% 6.7% 4.4% 10.2% 8.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 10.8% 22.5% 11.2% 1.7% 1.4% 3.2% 1.8% 0.2% Consensus: 9.8% 20.8% 12.4% 6.2% 4.5% 8.1% 3.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 27.0% 57.0% 46.0% 36.0% 10.0% 41.0% 15.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 12( 23) 20( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 87 90 97 101 104 105 104 108 106 107 104 103 97 95 18HR AGO 75 74 78 83 86 93 97 100 101 100 104 102 103 100 99 93 91 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 79 86 90 93 94 93 97 95 96 93 92 86 84 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 75 79 82 83 82 86 84 85 82 81 75 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT