* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 82 87 97 100 103 104 105 102 102 101 101 101 101 99 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 82 87 97 100 103 104 105 102 102 101 101 101 101 99 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 82 89 95 100 101 103 105 105 104 103 103 102 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 7 5 11 10 10 6 5 15 13 12 5 8 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 2 2 -1 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -6 -6 0 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 281 258 212 197 145 93 88 64 52 12 310 292 288 258 248 208 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 129 126 128 129 129 125 131 135 140 141 152 153 155 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 129 126 128 127 126 121 125 127 130 130 138 138 137 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 69 69 68 62 54 51 47 49 49 53 55 56 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 31 31 32 36 35 37 38 39 38 40 41 42 43 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 75 78 68 71 77 95 101 97 79 60 49 26 21 8 4 31 38 200 MB DIV 51 80 105 122 65 58 64 34 21 29 -19 2 46 68 63 54 36 700-850 TADV -13 -14 -13 -14 -11 -3 -1 2 -4 -2 2 1 0 10 13 7 12 LAND (KM) 1514 1681 1848 1897 1840 1672 1578 1512 1530 1516 1463 1317 1213 1195 1244 1327 1437 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.9 18.2 19.6 20.9 22.3 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 33.0 34.6 36.2 37.8 40.6 43.2 45.8 48.1 50.2 52.0 53.8 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 13 15 18 8 19 16 32 32 33 27 49 40 44 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 37. 37. 36. 36. 36. 36. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.9 31.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 44.7% 33.7% 24.3% 19.4% 26.3% 22.9% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 35.7% 22.2% 10.3% 5.7% 11.2% 6.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 15.9% 43.7% 27.0% 7.9% 4.7% 13.1% 1.9% 0.6% Consensus: 15.8% 41.4% 27.6% 14.2% 10.0% 16.9% 10.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 27.0% 75.0% 49.0% 42.0% 19.0% 75.0% 51.0% 35.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/02/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 10( 17) 20( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 77 82 87 97 100 103 104 105 102 102 101 101 101 101 99 18HR AGO 65 64 70 75 80 90 93 96 97 98 95 95 94 94 94 94 92 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 71 81 84 87 88 89 86 86 85 85 85 85 83 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 70 73 76 77 78 75 75 74 74 74 74 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT