* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 82 89 96 103 104 104 107 110 106 105 103 105 103 101 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 82 89 96 103 104 104 107 110 106 105 103 105 103 101 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 74 80 85 93 98 101 100 101 104 103 104 104 102 100 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 4 5 11 13 14 16 6 10 12 11 15 7 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 4 1 -2 1 -4 -5 -2 -5 0 -3 -5 1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 302 276 143 141 142 91 90 80 61 26 360 303 290 272 255 253 239 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.0 28.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 128 129 129 132 128 129 136 137 142 154 153 153 155 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 128 128 129 129 130 125 125 127 127 132 141 137 134 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 69 67 65 60 54 50 50 51 53 54 56 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 32 33 33 36 36 35 37 40 39 40 41 44 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 84 79 84 81 81 101 121 116 104 85 55 32 20 -3 -11 -11 4 200 MB DIV 42 51 95 120 128 43 50 18 35 20 -10 -8 31 34 69 69 38 700-850 TADV -18 -15 -11 -13 -10 -6 0 -4 -2 -5 0 0 0 6 11 20 17 LAND (KM) 1382 1549 1718 1871 1854 1719 1592 1514 1508 1526 1481 1382 1261 1215 1225 1268 1357 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.8 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.1 31.7 33.3 34.8 36.4 39.5 42.2 44.8 47.5 49.6 51.3 53.0 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 11 11 12 11 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 6 13 17 12 15 15 32 31 30 35 41 46 48 35 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 9. 12. 15. 13. 13. 13. 16. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 29. 37. 43. 44. 44. 47. 50. 46. 45. 43. 45. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.6 30.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.35 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 50.6% 38.7% 23.5% 17.0% 31.4% 27.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 21.7% 11.7% 3.1% 1.0% 2.9% 2.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 10.5% 26.9% 15.7% 3.2% 2.2% 11.0% 9.9% 0.9% Consensus: 11.3% 33.1% 22.0% 9.9% 6.7% 15.1% 13.3% 0.8% DTOPS: 26.0% 71.0% 48.0% 51.0% 12.0% 85.0% 72.0% 23.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 11( 15) 19( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 74 82 89 96 103 104 104 107 110 106 105 103 105 103 101 18HR AGO 60 59 66 74 81 88 95 96 96 99 102 98 97 95 97 95 93 12HR AGO 60 57 56 64 71 78 85 86 86 89 92 88 87 85 87 85 83 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 57 64 71 72 72 75 78 74 73 71 73 71 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT