* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 80 88 98 106 107 107 104 104 102 99 101 101 103 100 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 80 88 98 106 107 107 104 104 102 99 101 101 103 100 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 70 77 84 94 102 104 101 99 100 101 101 101 101 100 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 3 6 9 16 12 13 12 12 14 18 14 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 309 330 352 81 116 100 77 76 53 40 353 308 301 278 232 204 226 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 129 130 128 129 129 127 131 133 139 142 156 157 153 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 129 130 127 128 127 123 126 125 127 128 142 141 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 69 66 64 56 50 51 52 55 57 60 59 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 28 29 29 34 34 34 33 35 35 36 40 40 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 92 84 80 85 89 93 115 122 114 98 73 47 16 -5 -9 -16 -20 200 MB DIV 5 24 29 68 111 87 55 12 38 10 -4 8 11 40 48 22 64 700-850 TADV -15 -18 -15 -12 -11 -8 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 1 4 12 14 15 LAND (KM) 1207 1364 1523 1688 1855 1833 1686 1589 1519 1544 1545 1503 1458 1369 1300 1357 1511 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.7 16.8 18.3 19.9 21.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.9 31.4 33.0 34.6 37.5 40.1 42.9 45.5 48.0 50.1 51.7 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 16 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 9 9 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 5 11 17 9 20 15 30 29 28 37 43 40 35 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 10. 12. 12. 12. 15. 15. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 18. 13. 7. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 25. 33. 43. 51. 52. 52. 49. 49. 47. 44. 46. 46. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.4 28.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 48.6% 36.0% 24.9% 17.5% 41.3% 28.6% 15.4% Logistic: 15.8% 24.3% 16.0% 6.3% 2.3% 4.4% 4.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 21.7% 57.0% 31.8% 10.5% 12.8% 24.0% 4.2% 0.8% Consensus: 18.5% 43.3% 27.9% 13.9% 10.9% 23.2% 12.4% 5.9% DTOPS: 23.0% 60.0% 39.0% 43.0% 8.0% 63.0% 94.0% 47.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 11( 15) 21( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 70 80 88 98 106 107 107 104 104 102 99 101 101 103 100 18HR AGO 55 54 62 72 80 90 98 99 99 96 96 94 91 93 93 95 92 12HR AGO 55 52 51 61 69 79 87 88 88 85 85 83 80 82 82 84 81 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 53 63 71 72 72 69 69 67 64 66 66 68 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT