* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIAN AL112021 08/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 57 57 55 50 47 45 42 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 57 57 55 50 47 45 42 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 59 58 54 46 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 42 52 60 61 43 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -9 -15 -4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 216 214 205 205 194 172 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 25.7 23.6 22.4 19.0 14.4 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 115 99 92 80 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 102 88 83 74 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.7 0.5 1.3 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 42 45 45 43 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 81 117 119 135 104 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 61 50 39 51 27 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -2 -16 -31 -33 -29 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1344 1295 1283 1280 1311 1255 1153 1130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 37.5 38.9 40.5 42.1 46.2 50.7 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.6 43.6 41.5 39.7 37.9 36.4 37.3 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 21 21 21 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -27. -32. -38. -43. -51. -55. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -30. -38. -41. -42. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.0 45.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 57 57 55 50 47 45 42 38 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 49 44 41 39 36 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 44 39 36 34 31 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 30 28 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT