* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIAN AL112021 08/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 52 51 47 45 42 39 34 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 52 51 47 45 42 39 34 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 54 52 46 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 30 42 50 58 55 30 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -4 -7 -13 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 216 217 214 205 204 192 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 25.8 24.0 21.5 17.3 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 123 116 102 88 76 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 109 103 91 79 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 1.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 45 46 45 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 51 70 102 126 121 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 60 53 44 20 63 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 -5 0 -3 -17 -20 -42 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1428 1363 1329 1314 1334 1319 1232 1154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.8 37.0 38.5 39.9 43.7 47.9 51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 45.7 43.7 41.6 39.5 36.8 36.3 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 21 22 21 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -21. -26. -32. -38. -43. -51. -56. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -29. -32. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.5 47.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112021 JULIAN 08/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 53 52 51 47 45 42 39 34 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 47 46 42 40 37 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 36 34 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 29 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT