* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112021 08/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 46 43 41 38 32 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 46 43 41 38 32 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 29 42 50 60 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 0 -2 -12 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 240 217 216 212 205 193 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 25.9 22.4 18.9 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 128 128 117 92 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 114 113 113 103 83 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 41 42 46 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 13 15 15 14 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 43 52 56 73 118 138 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 52 59 56 36 52 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 -5 -5 -4 -24 -52 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1493 1418 1362 1329 1326 1348 1254 1163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.7 35.7 36.9 38.1 41.3 45.7 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 47.6 45.9 43.9 41.9 38.0 36.6 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 19 20 21 21 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. -0. -9. -18. -26. -34. -41. -48. -57. -63. -66. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 13. 11. 8. 2. -2. -7. -15. -19. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.6 49.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 47 46 43 41 38 32 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 43 42 39 37 34 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 37 36 33 31 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 26 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT