* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 09/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 37 37 37 36 36 35 35 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 37 37 37 36 36 35 35 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 19 23 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 43 57 69 87 113 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 135 132 130 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 120 114 111 109 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 41 40 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -87 -97 -108 -128 -141 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -39 -2 -24 -2 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1711 1749 1793 1759 1671 1538 1413 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.8 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.0 53.3 53.5 53.6 53.3 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 24 26 17 14 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.0 52.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 09/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 37 37 37 36 36 35 35 34 35 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 30 33 36 36 36 36 35 35 34 34 33 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 30 33 33 33 33 32 32 31 31 30 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 26 26 26 26 25 25 24 24 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT