* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 09/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 16 17 19 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -1 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 26 36 48 57 88 109 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 27.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 142 132 133 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 125 124 123 112 112 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 48 46 43 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -64 -74 -95 -111 -142 -154 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -4 -31 -12 -22 -11 21 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 -1 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1672 1684 1701 1733 1771 1709 1567 1378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.9 27.6 28.5 29.4 31.1 32.6 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.1 52.5 52.8 53.2 53.4 52.9 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 22 26 14 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.1 51.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.6% 6.4% 6.1% 4.2% 6.6% 6.4% 6.9% Logistic: 4.4% 11.6% 6.9% 4.3% 2.3% 11.0% 12.5% 15.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 11.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.4% 5.2% 3.5% 2.2% 6.0% 6.3% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 09/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 44 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 39 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 28 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT