* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 09/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 40 43 44 45 46 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 40 43 44 45 46 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 15 11 13 13 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 3 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 351 3 21 24 42 83 100 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 142 139 143 139 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 125 122 123 118 109 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 47 47 45 43 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -35 -45 -60 -75 -110 -140 -156 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -24 -4 -6 -22 -19 -4 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -3 3 -1 4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1682 1662 1648 1653 1664 1729 1655 1491 1330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.1 27.9 29.6 31.3 33.0 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 54.0 54.4 54.0 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 17 18 35 18 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.0 51.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.5% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.6% 5.6% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 3.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 09/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 09/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 40 43 44 45 46 48 48 48 50 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 37 39 42 43 44 45 47 47 47 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 29 34 36 39 40 41 42 44 44 44 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 28 30 33 34 35 36 38 38 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT