* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 36 39 41 43 44 45 46 47 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 36 39 41 43 44 45 46 47 47 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 26 27 28 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 17 14 13 13 11 15 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 332 352 5 21 39 77 100 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 148 145 142 142 135 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 130 127 123 122 114 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 49 49 48 44 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -29 -34 -48 -59 -93 -128 -147 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -5 -5 10 -1 -11 -3 3 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -2 2 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1673 1680 1691 1684 1683 1706 1776 1591 1421 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.5 30.3 32.0 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.8 51.0 51.2 51.7 52.2 53.2 53.9 54.1 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 23 23 20 22 26 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.1 50.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 5.9% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 6.5% 6.6% 8.3% Logistic: 1.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 1.6% 1.9% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 2.7% 2.8% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/31/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 30 33 36 39 41 43 44 45 46 47 47 48 50 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 33 36 39 41 43 44 45 46 47 47 48 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 36 38 40 41 42 43 44 44 45 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 29 31 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT