* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 54 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 28 29 32 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 20 16 13 11 9 9 6 8 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 1 3 0 -1 -3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 321 326 344 1 15 19 48 57 86 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 144 147 147 148 141 144 142 133 129 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 127 130 129 130 123 124 120 113 109 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 50 49 48 47 45 49 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -26 -33 -39 -60 -96 -134 -154 -113 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 10 -7 -7 1 -19 -19 -5 12 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 -1 4 0 6 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1651 1654 1660 1656 1656 1657 1705 1728 1537 1371 1200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.8 27.3 29.1 30.6 32.3 34.1 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.7 50.9 51.1 51.5 51.8 52.8 53.8 54.4 54.8 54.2 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 24 22 22 17 31 24 12 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.2 50.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 5.8% 6.2% 9.4% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 2.2% 2.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/31/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 54 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 34 37 39 41 42 44 45 46 47 48 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 31 33 35 36 38 39 40 41 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT