* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 46 49 49 49 51 52 54 55 57 60 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 46 49 49 49 51 52 54 55 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 33 34 37 40 42 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 28 17 13 9 7 7 8 6 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 1 3 0 0 -2 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 308 319 314 331 16 345 5 20 90 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 138 140 145 143 144 143 135 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 119 122 123 127 124 123 121 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 49 49 47 46 46 48 51 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -22 -22 -27 -31 -47 -77 -109 -132 -149 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 15 9 -15 -3 -13 -25 1 3 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 0 1 -3 3 -2 3 3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1619 1641 1665 1662 1663 1648 1655 1679 1690 1502 1303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.6 28.1 29.5 30.8 32.6 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.9 50.8 50.8 51.1 51.4 52.4 53.5 54.6 55.0 54.9 54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 19 18 20 21 37 21 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.8 50.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/31/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 46 49 49 49 51 52 54 55 57 60 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 38 42 45 48 48 48 50 51 53 54 56 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 35 39 42 45 45 45 47 48 50 51 53 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 32 35 38 38 38 40 41 43 44 46 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT