* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 33 33 36 39 44 46 48 48 49 50 53 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 33 33 36 39 44 46 48 48 49 50 53 54 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 29 29 31 34 37 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 26 15 11 6 3 10 4 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -1 0 2 5 -2 0 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 300 309 315 306 337 360 345 13 79 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.6 27.9 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 136 136 139 145 144 145 136 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 118 119 122 127 125 125 117 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 48 49 46 45 45 43 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -21 -29 -24 -33 -51 -86 -125 -153 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -6 6 14 0 0 -7 -24 2 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 2 0 2 -2 1 -2 6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1613 1635 1658 1672 1687 1680 1643 1639 1700 1469 1223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.9 27.2 28.7 30.6 32.8 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.9 50.8 50.8 50.8 50.9 51.6 52.9 54.3 55.2 55.3 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 10 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 22 20 18 18 19 29 21 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 50.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/31/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/31/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 33 33 33 36 39 44 46 48 48 49 50 53 54 56 58 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 37 40 45 47 49 49 50 51 54 55 57 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 34 37 42 44 46 46 47 48 51 52 54 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 31 36 38 40 40 41 42 45 46 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT