* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL102021 08/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 39 41 44 48 48 50 48 73 83 74 62 53 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 39 41 44 48 48 50 48 73 83 74 62 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 42 40 39 39 42 46 49 51 56 73 81 65 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 35 29 31 27 11 9 8 14 10 8 5 11 18 18 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 1 1 -3 -2 -5 -1 -7 -2 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 304 306 300 299 304 317 325 329 335 323 354 35 152 189 218 258 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.5 24.5 23.2 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 129 130 135 139 145 142 146 144 135 129 122 104 95 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 113 113 114 119 122 128 124 125 122 117 112 106 90 82 72 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 7 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 53 51 50 48 48 48 47 51 53 56 48 42 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 20 28 22 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -5 -9 -13 -13 -23 -39 -69 -102 -124 -129 -60 -11 46 61 11 200 MB DIV -8 14 5 -9 3 1 -17 2 -36 5 12 12 38 6 19 -1 0 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 -10 -3 -24 -22 -19 -37 LAND (KM) 1588 1606 1623 1655 1687 1705 1677 1657 1638 1689 1575 1374 1134 881 796 912 1089 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.1 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.5 30.1 31.7 33.9 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 50.7 50.7 50.5 50.3 50.5 51.4 52.5 54.1 55.2 55.6 54.7 52.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 9 10 14 17 18 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 19 18 19 18 20 26 26 17 19 9 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -12. -15. 8. 17. 9. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 8. 10. 8. 33. 43. 34. 22. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.2 50.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 KATE 08/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 KATE 08/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 KATE 08/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 40 39 39 41 44 48 48 50 48 73 83 74 62 53 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 37 37 39 42 46 46 48 46 71 81 72 60 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 34 36 39 43 43 45 43 68 78 69 57 48 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 31 34 38 38 40 38 63 73 64 52 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT