* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 43 46 51 59 60 64 65 61 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 43 46 51 59 60 64 65 61 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 27 30 35 40 47 52 56 57 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 41 33 30 31 18 8 8 11 9 9 7 8 2 16 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 1 8 -8 -4 7 SHEAR DIR 294 303 305 297 301 314 287 308 305 310 312 320 342 61 149 198 242 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.5 24.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 128 128 133 143 146 140 141 133 127 128 121 106 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 115 114 113 112 116 125 127 120 120 114 109 108 103 92 84 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 54 55 54 50 50 48 50 48 48 47 47 50 43 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 11 13 16 17 20 21 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -2 -1 -9 -13 -7 -27 -46 -70 -95 -117 -130 -53 54 85 42 200 MB DIV -16 -3 26 3 -2 20 10 -9 -12 -6 -2 29 16 31 13 3 33 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 1 2 2 0 2 5 5 12 7 1 4 -12 -28 -43 LAND (KM) 1549 1607 1636 1674 1714 1759 1742 1741 1738 1763 1716 1516 1268 1088 992 964 1053 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.4 27.8 29.3 30.9 32.9 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 50.6 50.5 50.3 50.0 49.9 50.5 51.2 52.2 53.2 53.8 53.6 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 7 8 9 8 9 11 12 13 15 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 16 17 17 15 15 25 24 27 18 15 5 7 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 3. 2. 5. 6. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 13. 16. 21. 29. 30. 34. 35. 31. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.5 50.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 43 46 51 59 60 64 65 61 53 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 29 32 37 42 45 50 58 59 63 64 60 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 30 35 40 43 48 56 57 61 62 58 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 24 29 34 37 42 50 51 55 56 52 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT