* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 35 38 41 48 52 54 59 61 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 35 38 41 48 52 54 59 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 25 27 30 34 41 47 53 59 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 33 39 30 28 27 14 14 7 12 6 7 6 9 11 34 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -2 -4 2 -6 -10 SHEAR DIR 297 294 302 305 292 304 301 302 296 336 302 313 281 323 275 234 246 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.3 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 129 127 128 129 140 148 144 137 134 128 126 119 107 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 115 113 113 113 123 128 123 116 113 108 107 102 93 83 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.4 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 54 56 51 49 49 47 50 48 48 48 55 49 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 11 12 12 15 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -7 -6 0 -14 -6 -21 -51 -71 -100 -124 -129 -56 24 54 -35 200 MB DIV 22 -6 -5 17 26 7 5 -1 -6 -22 7 15 20 33 15 2 -25 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 3 1 1 -1 0 3 7 9 10 -1 8 -27 -47 -32 LAND (KM) 1498 1561 1626 1671 1710 1778 1813 1803 1830 1882 1757 1568 1348 1166 1023 937 934 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.8 25.0 26.4 28.1 29.6 30.9 32.6 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 50.5 50.4 50.1 49.9 49.6 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.9 52.4 52.4 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 9 9 7 8 9 10 12 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 22 16 15 16 16 15 29 32 32 17 13 5 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9. -5. -5. -5. -2. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 22. 24. 29. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 50.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 35 38 41 48 52 54 59 61 55 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 29 29 30 31 34 37 40 47 51 53 58 60 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 44 48 50 55 57 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 39 43 45 50 52 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT