* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 33 33 39 42 47 49 51 52 54 54 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 33 33 39 42 47 49 51 52 54 54 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 28 30 35 39 44 47 49 51 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 31 35 27 27 13 9 6 11 5 4 2 5 2 2 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 9 2 SHEAR DIR 318 294 288 298 300 289 299 258 271 317 16 76 114 349 139 101 190 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 129 128 129 131 134 143 143 135 128 126 125 118 111 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 116 115 114 114 115 117 124 121 114 107 105 105 100 96 86 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 46 49 51 52 55 56 50 49 46 47 48 50 50 51 54 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 8 10 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -4 -8 -47 -70 -97 -118 -133 -123 -74 -18 26 200 MB DIV 24 24 0 0 25 -1 2 -2 -12 -10 -23 -3 4 7 23 45 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 5 3 4 8 3 2 5 3 5 -7 -6 -8 -3 -19 LAND (KM) 1495 1547 1602 1667 1711 1808 1865 1911 1947 1870 1714 1559 1383 1237 1139 1070 1072 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.6 28.4 30.0 31.4 32.8 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.0 49.8 49.2 49.1 49.4 50.1 50.5 50.6 50.6 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 38 30 18 15 16 17 19 20 30 28 15 7 4 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 9. 12. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 50.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 33 33 39 42 47 49 51 52 54 54 60 60 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 31 31 37 40 45 47 49 50 52 52 58 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 28 28 34 37 42 44 46 47 49 49 55 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 22 28 31 36 38 40 41 43 43 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT