* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 38 41 46 51 53 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 38 41 46 51 53 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 31 36 43 49 53 56 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 29 22 17 33 20 18 5 2 1 7 6 7 5 9 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -2 1 -4 0 -6 -3 0 2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 305 316 325 329 315 305 287 286 253 7 92 47 123 123 189 273 270 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 128 128 127 127 126 127 139 143 142 136 132 126 124 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 119 118 117 115 113 112 112 123 124 121 114 111 108 110 96 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 1 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 48 49 53 55 54 47 46 44 45 42 41 44 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -17 -22 -14 -18 -7 -6 -8 -26 -58 -79 -106 -121 -122 -102 -53 200 MB DIV -16 -4 19 12 18 10 61 7 4 -6 3 -27 1 6 10 33 38 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 1 1 5 2 4 2 0 0 1 3 1 -1 7 -11 LAND (KM) 1250 1335 1420 1488 1544 1680 1806 1867 1850 1849 1912 1852 1683 1504 1294 1050 930 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 21.0 22.3 23.5 25.0 26.6 28.5 30.1 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.4 48.9 48.6 49.3 50.1 50.6 51.2 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 8 10 9 8 8 9 12 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 21 27 35 17 21 19 16 29 31 31 18 9 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 21. 23. 26. 26. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 49.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 38 41 46 51 53 56 56 57 57 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 30 32 33 37 40 45 50 52 55 55 56 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 30 31 35 38 43 48 50 53 53 54 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 24 25 29 32 37 42 44 47 47 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT