* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 34 37 40 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 34 37 40 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 26 28 32 36 41 44 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 24 27 21 24 24 22 12 15 3 8 12 12 18 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -6 -4 0 -4 -3 -4 -7 -6 -6 -4 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 293 306 315 327 333 304 304 271 268 254 241 268 134 155 165 208 220 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 28.3 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.1 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 128 128 126 126 125 127 140 148 142 136 126 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 120 119 118 116 114 112 111 112 122 129 123 117 108 107 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 51 51 52 55 52 47 46 46 46 46 45 44 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 -11 -15 -22 -16 -28 -10 -8 -10 -29 -59 -81 -110 -119 -105 -68 200 MB DIV -10 -16 -1 13 17 18 20 22 12 7 3 0 8 3 -4 34 18 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 1143 1211 1281 1359 1438 1550 1680 1774 1788 1780 1766 1803 1896 1666 1437 1279 1206 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.8 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.7 49.3 49.2 49.4 50.0 50.8 51.4 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 18 22 35 18 18 14 14 25 30 35 16 4 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 50.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 4.7% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 34 37 40 43 43 44 46 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 42 42 43 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 30 33 36 39 39 40 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 24 27 30 33 33 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT