* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 37 42 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 37 42 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 30 29 28 28 27 29 32 37 43 48 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 21 24 16 31 23 23 13 9 3 5 12 18 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -1 -6 -1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 303 311 317 324 320 309 293 283 251 302 157 28 147 146 194 228 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 28.0 28.7 28.1 28.2 27.3 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 129 130 129 128 128 126 126 126 136 146 138 141 129 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 120 122 120 118 117 113 111 112 121 128 120 124 111 101 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 54 51 49 49 53 48 45 43 42 44 43 43 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -13 -10 -18 -23 -27 -28 -9 -14 -7 -25 -48 -62 -98 -124 -106 -77 200 MB DIV -20 -7 -1 -4 8 2 3 36 6 13 8 2 1 -10 4 26 9 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1071 1111 1151 1243 1336 1451 1585 1709 1731 1742 1723 1705 1699 1771 1479 1328 1335 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.5 20.0 21.6 22.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.1 50.3 50.2 50.1 50.1 49.7 49.6 49.7 50.0 50.9 52.0 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 8 8 8 6 6 8 9 9 10 14 13 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 20 17 18 28 31 15 15 13 18 22 21 17 5 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -7. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 50.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 37 42 45 46 47 48 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 28 28 29 28 29 31 35 40 43 44 45 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 25 26 25 26 28 32 37 40 41 42 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 20 19 20 22 26 31 34 35 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT