* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 37 41 44 52 49 47 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 37 41 44 52 49 47 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 35 33 30 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 11 13 10 15 14 17 14 21 28 42 37 44 47 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 -2 -1 0 0 -3 1 1 2 4 8 1 5 SHEAR DIR 256 257 253 259 284 306 341 20 353 350 305 302 302 311 320 331 311 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 130 131 129 130 128 127 127 126 127 128 134 143 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 125 122 121 118 120 118 118 116 113 116 120 128 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 54 50 51 50 49 49 49 42 39 38 39 43 45 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 16 14 13 12 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 36 23 11 7 -23 -73 -78 -84 -79 -59 -36 -26 -17 -38 -69 200 MB DIV 19 10 -4 -8 -7 -27 -20 -18 -15 -2 -20 -17 -9 7 1 -16 18 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 3 5 2 2 0 -1 0 1 5 9 11 19 18 25 LAND (KM) 1075 1037 1000 962 923 914 956 1057 1176 1307 1381 1399 1298 1130 918 596 419 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.8 49.6 50.2 50.6 50.8 50.8 50.6 50.2 49.5 49.2 49.8 51.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 7 5 3 1 3 5 6 5 3 6 10 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 28 31 30 30 29 26 19 17 20 19 32 27 57 44 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -8. -9. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 27. 24. 22. 22. 20. 17. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 47.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.4% 7.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.4% 2.2% 4.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.5% 4.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.8% 4.2% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 37 41 44 52 49 47 47 45 42 38 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 32 36 40 43 51 48 46 46 44 41 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 29 33 37 40 48 45 43 43 41 38 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 26 30 33 41 38 36 36 34 31 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT