* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 37 39 40 38 40 40 40 41 40 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 37 39 40 38 40 40 40 41 40 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 29 29 32 34 35 33 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 3 7 11 10 13 10 15 14 26 36 37 45 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 6 6 5 -1 -3 1 2 0 3 1 4 5 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 277 285 285 255 266 310 312 5 10 349 303 293 289 295 306 320 309 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 133 133 131 130 128 126 126 124 124 127 130 137 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 128 125 122 121 120 119 116 116 112 112 118 121 128 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 59 58 57 54 51 56 50 52 48 45 40 41 41 43 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 15 13 12 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 29 28 16 -7 -23 -46 -50 -67 -62 -61 -47 -52 -79 -103 -113 200 MB DIV 24 20 6 -8 -7 -15 -37 2 -16 -5 -1 -2 -14 10 16 -1 8 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -2 0 2 5 1 0 -2 -2 -1 3 16 17 24 23 13 LAND (KM) 1106 1023 988 977 963 978 1047 1147 1265 1394 1498 1564 1576 1496 1352 1164 1032 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.8 47.3 48.2 48.8 49.1 49.2 48.8 48.6 48.2 47.8 47.5 47.8 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 8 4 2 2 4 5 5 6 4 5 9 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 27 30 31 24 17 15 26 26 20 26 28 38 32 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 14. 15. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 45.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.4% 9.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 12.7% 10.8% 5.1% 1.3% 6.0% 8.4% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 3.5% 10.0% 7.5% 4.5% 0.5% 2.2% 6.3% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 37 39 40 38 40 40 40 41 40 40 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 35 37 38 36 38 38 38 39 38 38 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 31 33 34 32 34 34 34 35 34 34 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 26 27 25 27 27 27 28 27 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT