* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 37 42 43 40 40 39 40 43 46 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 37 42 43 40 40 39 40 43 46 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 31 33 34 35 35 37 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 3 1 12 10 13 8 16 19 29 20 10 11 15 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 4 6 6 4 -3 -3 -2 0 2 1 4 0 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 282 270 313 271 272 294 300 317 309 293 284 280 264 276 208 212 213 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 129 128 127 127 127 123 121 122 122 115 119 124 121 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 125 121 117 117 118 114 112 112 112 105 108 109 103 103 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 60 59 54 58 57 53 43 43 41 46 47 45 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 44 44 37 28 -3 -11 -26 -44 -63 -57 -65 -84 -135 -141 -138 -114 200 MB DIV 60 30 28 28 2 -27 -2 16 -1 -17 10 13 8 7 -21 -23 -35 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -4 -1 0 4 5 0 -2 0 -3 5 13 13 -7 -18 -22 LAND (KM) 1241 1164 1116 1105 1105 1153 1256 1391 1553 1700 1871 2056 2269 2408 2411 2481 2414 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 19.8 21.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.2 46.3 47.0 47.3 47.3 46.8 46.1 45.4 44.8 44.3 44.1 44.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 6 3 3 6 7 7 7 9 10 11 8 4 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 16 22 19 18 16 15 12 11 15 14 1 2 15 8 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 17. 18. 15. 15. 14. 15. 18. 21. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 43.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.8% 10.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 18.5% 15.3% 6.9% 1.7% 5.5% 5.8% 9.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.4% 2.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% Consensus: 4.6% 12.9% 9.4% 5.2% 0.7% 2.1% 5.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 33 37 42 43 40 40 39 40 43 46 49 48 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 34 39 40 37 37 36 37 40 43 46 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 30 35 36 33 33 32 33 36 39 42 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 27 28 25 25 24 25 28 31 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT