* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 49 51 54 56 60 60 63 65 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 49 51 54 56 60 60 63 65 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 36 38 42 46 49 50 49 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 0 4 5 5 9 11 7 7 17 24 20 18 20 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 4 4 4 0 -6 0 1 1 0 1 -1 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 280 207 254 314 289 286 301 305 284 249 259 255 254 258 250 263 250 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 125 125 125 124 124 120 116 115 111 113 116 117 113 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 122 119 117 114 115 113 109 106 103 104 107 104 100 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.7 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 62 60 57 54 59 53 45 41 45 48 47 41 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 17 18 19 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 65 58 47 48 37 20 -7 -19 -29 -37 -38 -75 -105 -137 -117 -76 -69 200 MB DIV 69 58 41 41 42 -20 -20 8 29 3 11 6 1 -20 -12 -22 -32 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -10 -6 0 4 7 1 -6 -6 0 0 -7 -1 -12 -18 -6 LAND (KM) 1368 1281 1224 1190 1181 1219 1313 1478 1679 1898 2119 2379 2291 2068 1859 1759 1823 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.9 17.5 19.1 20.8 23.0 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.6 44.7 45.6 46.1 46.2 45.7 44.8 43.9 42.7 41.6 40.6 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 7 5 3 6 8 10 10 11 13 15 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 11 16 17 16 15 7 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 9. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -3. -3. -2. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 24. 26. 29. 31. 35. 35. 38. 40. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 42.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.7% 12.3% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 23.7% 20.4% 12.1% 2.9% 8.6% 6.1% 7.6% Bayesian: 3.7% 8.4% 6.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% Consensus: 7.9% 16.9% 13.1% 7.7% 1.2% 3.5% 5.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 49 51 54 56 60 60 63 65 61 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 39 46 48 51 53 57 57 60 62 58 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 34 41 43 46 48 52 52 55 57 53 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 32 34 37 39 43 43 46 48 44 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT