* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 33 37 42 47 50 55 58 61 62 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 33 37 42 47 50 55 58 61 62 62 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 31 35 39 43 45 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 6 5 7 15 11 8 4 13 9 21 29 24 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 7 6 3 2 -4 -1 2 -4 0 0 -1 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 217 197 208 230 239 289 313 307 315 309 278 253 231 245 246 250 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 126 124 126 125 125 125 121 119 120 117 113 115 115 111 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 124 121 120 114 115 117 113 109 109 106 104 103 101 96 97 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 64 64 61 60 53 57 55 49 41 39 40 43 39 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 13 12 13 14 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 58 50 49 38 3 -11 -22 -25 -70 -66 -74 -94 -138 -140 -90 200 MB DIV 43 67 63 49 29 -7 -41 -4 6 -3 -24 3 27 -5 -8 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -10 -11 -6 0 4 4 -3 -5 0 0 5 3 8 -9 -14 LAND (KM) 1520 1416 1339 1268 1209 1175 1188 1307 1459 1636 1783 1943 2141 2385 2439 2328 2312 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.9 16.1 17.5 18.7 20.1 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 42.2 43.5 44.7 45.7 46.6 46.7 46.1 45.4 44.6 44.0 43.5 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 12 11 8 2 3 7 8 7 7 8 11 10 7 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 10 16 16 16 14 9 8 10 7 0 0 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 40.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.9% 9.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 14.4% 13.3% 5.9% 1.1% 4.8% 2.9% 2.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 4.2% 3.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 5.7% 11.2% 8.8% 4.8% 0.4% 2.0% 4.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 33 37 42 47 50 55 58 61 62 62 64 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 30 34 39 44 47 52 55 58 59 59 61 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 25 29 34 39 42 47 50 53 54 54 56 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 22 27 32 35 40 43 46 47 47 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT