* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 41 41 39 38 38 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 41 41 39 38 38 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 2 3 6 13 15 11 14 21 23 20 13 15 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 8 3 1 -1 -2 0 1 1 2 2 -3 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 212 230 216 208 126 192 231 256 248 255 255 267 273 261 252 245 269 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 126 127 129 126 123 121 119 118 116 115 120 115 109 104 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 123 122 122 117 114 113 111 109 106 105 111 105 98 92 91 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 67 67 64 63 62 64 55 50 44 48 50 49 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 62 47 33 30 22 1 -14 -13 -30 -43 -73 -96 -122 -134 -122 -76 200 MB DIV 18 44 69 54 46 34 -20 -7 23 44 0 13 48 31 -14 -11 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -10 -5 1 3 3 2 1 2 8 18 5 0 -11 -16 LAND (KM) 1644 1555 1488 1446 1409 1443 1526 1653 1816 2012 2226 2321 2169 1942 1638 1423 1330 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 14.1 14.9 16.2 17.8 19.6 21.3 23.1 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.7 40.8 41.6 42.4 43.0 42.8 42.6 42.2 41.6 40.6 39.5 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 10 8 7 5 5 8 9 10 9 12 15 16 13 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 7 5 6 8 9 9 10 5 6 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 38.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 9.7% 7.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 6.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.7% 4.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 41 41 39 38 38 39 41 43 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 38 40 40 38 37 37 38 40 42 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 30 34 36 36 34 33 33 34 36 38 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 28 30 30 28 27 27 28 30 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT