* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 38 43 46 48 47 45 44 43 44 47 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 38 43 46 48 47 45 44 43 44 47 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 36 34 31 30 30 30 31 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 3 4 7 7 14 17 15 17 16 17 13 9 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 4 4 0 4 -1 0 1 1 5 5 4 1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 174 155 14 52 81 118 167 255 254 235 231 254 275 317 298 274 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.5 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 126 126 126 124 122 119 117 115 115 121 115 111 105 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 129 122 120 116 114 113 112 109 106 105 112 106 100 93 90 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 63 63 63 60 62 54 50 46 51 55 49 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 72 64 47 33 27 9 -14 -10 -35 -36 -66 -78 -113 -104 -77 -49 200 MB DIV 5 26 52 60 62 30 7 -23 18 30 13 2 21 11 -9 -13 -40 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -8 -9 -2 3 4 3 0 4 7 9 15 1 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 1652 1669 1601 1535 1500 1472 1544 1640 1812 2010 2226 2273 2140 1916 1613 1353 1223 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.8 18.7 20.7 22.7 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.1 39.4 40.5 41.2 42.1 41.9 41.5 41.0 40.5 39.8 39.0 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 9 7 3 4 7 9 10 11 12 16 18 15 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 9 5 5 7 6 5 6 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 20. 19. 18. 19. 22. 24. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 36.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.0% 9.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 1.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.4% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 3.9% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 32 38 43 46 48 47 45 44 43 44 47 49 53 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 42 45 47 46 44 43 42 43 46 48 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 37 40 42 41 39 38 37 38 41 43 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 31 33 32 30 29 28 29 32 34 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT