* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 52 52 53 53 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 52 52 53 53 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 34 33 30 29 29 31 33 34 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 1 2 3 10 20 24 15 11 9 20 24 26 24 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 6 6 7 5 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 110 143 155 131 113 162 237 250 284 286 311 326 294 280 275 279 237 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 128 128 130 129 128 129 124 121 118 119 119 124 126 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 133 127 125 125 119 116 121 115 112 107 109 109 114 115 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 59 60 63 57 58 56 59 52 49 42 40 39 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 96 85 76 53 30 18 0 -19 -22 -39 -47 -41 -44 -82 -96 -125 200 MB DIV -5 -1 16 36 46 16 -13 -41 5 -6 0 -20 12 4 20 0 16 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -7 -7 -9 -8 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 6 11 22 4 LAND (KM) 1676 1685 1635 1532 1447 1319 1277 1288 1356 1478 1603 1743 1837 1951 2106 2255 2286 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 14.1 15.2 16.5 17.8 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 37.2 38.8 40.2 41.4 43.3 44.3 44.4 44.3 43.9 43.7 43.3 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 13 11 8 3 1 5 6 7 6 7 8 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 15 5 5 10 14 15 15 11 8 6 10 9 4 14 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 27. 27. 28. 28. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 35.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.3% 9.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 10.5% 7.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.1% 5.5% 3.2% 0.2% 1.0% 4.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/25/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 52 52 53 53 55 59 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 34 38 41 44 45 47 50 50 51 51 53 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 37 40 41 43 46 46 47 47 49 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 29 32 33 35 38 38 39 39 41 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT