* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 35 40 43 45 46 47 49 50 51 52 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 35 40 43 45 46 47 49 50 51 52 54 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 33 31 29 29 31 33 35 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 2 0 1 5 13 24 21 13 1 17 16 23 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 4 11 6 1 -5 -2 -1 3 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 99 134 181 191 138 143 225 251 276 286 257 6 273 251 259 244 245 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 134 134 129 125 127 126 128 124 120 118 117 117 119 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 134 134 128 120 118 116 119 115 112 109 107 107 109 110 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -56.1 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 61 61 64 61 60 58 60 54 50 44 42 42 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 108 99 88 72 34 22 0 -20 -36 -46 -61 -55 -45 -70 -98 -129 200 MB DIV 4 12 16 34 44 46 4 -28 -27 3 20 4 4 16 8 1 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -11 -3 1 1 0 0 -1 3 6 14 19 10 LAND (KM) 1670 1644 1637 1633 1560 1433 1376 1394 1443 1553 1657 1770 1877 1995 2139 2357 2430 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.5 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.5 36.9 38.3 39.5 41.3 42.4 42.6 42.5 42.4 42.4 42.5 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 13 11 8 4 2 4 6 7 6 7 8 11 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 14 17 18 8 5 8 8 8 8 10 6 6 8 2 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 33.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.2% 8.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 15.0% 8.6% 2.7% 1.2% 4.2% 1.7% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 10.0% 6.0% 3.4% 0.4% 1.4% 4.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 31 35 40 43 45 46 47 49 50 51 52 54 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 34 39 42 44 45 46 48 49 50 51 53 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 35 38 40 41 42 44 45 46 47 49 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 30 32 33 34 36 37 38 39 41 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT