* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/25/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 40 43 45 45 46 46 45 44 46 50 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 40 43 45 45 46 46 45 44 46 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 34 32 30 28 27 27 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 5 3 1 3 12 22 26 20 19 26 21 15 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 1 5 7 0 -4 -1 1 0 3 7 10 6 0 SHEAR DIR 80 84 119 142 157 264 193 244 256 278 258 276 277 274 290 269 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 133 135 132 129 127 127 127 125 121 120 119 119 121 119 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 133 135 132 125 119 117 118 117 113 111 110 110 112 109 102 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 62 64 63 60 59 59 62 54 51 48 52 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 110 102 89 75 39 14 0 -15 -33 -43 -70 -64 -85 -86 -92 -95 200 MB DIV -5 0 3 9 29 38 9 -41 -40 0 21 20 1 28 21 6 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 5 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1616 1694 1673 1650 1650 1603 1536 1532 1570 1621 1721 1856 2037 2250 2437 2223 1939 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.9 16.3 18.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 33.3 34.7 36.0 37.3 39.3 40.4 40.9 41.0 41.4 41.7 42.0 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 8 4 3 4 7 8 10 10 13 16 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 9 14 14 9 7 7 7 7 7 4 8 2 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 21. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 31.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/25/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.2% 8.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 12.3% 6.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.3% 2.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 9.7% 5.4% 3.1% 0.3% 1.2% 4.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/25/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 36 40 43 45 45 46 46 45 44 46 50 55 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 34 38 41 43 43 44 44 43 42 44 48 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 34 37 39 39 40 40 39 38 40 44 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 30 32 32 33 33 32 31 33 37 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT