* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 52 55 55 55 54 52 53 54 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 52 55 55 55 54 52 53 54 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 40 41 40 37 34 32 32 33 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 7 4 2 2 9 15 24 18 18 20 18 10 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 4 8 3 -2 -2 1 2 3 0 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 101 85 87 94 91 72 231 223 247 264 248 253 300 262 292 256 258 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 128 131 135 129 128 128 125 123 119 120 116 119 118 114 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 128 131 135 126 122 119 116 116 111 112 107 110 109 104 97 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.7 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 61 61 63 65 62 63 60 61 56 55 53 57 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 111 115 102 90 56 11 8 -11 -26 -31 -57 -72 -89 -116 -108 -88 200 MB DIV 20 3 7 2 10 24 32 -5 -32 -18 14 8 26 16 22 13 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 2 3 5 7 9 8 9 -2 LAND (KM) 1482 1633 1674 1661 1648 1683 1652 1634 1694 1775 1921 2101 2341 2254 2087 1836 1544 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.8 17.6 19.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.8 33.3 34.5 35.7 37.9 39.2 40.0 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.4 39.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 12 12 10 6 4 5 8 9 11 13 15 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 8 13 12 9 7 7 6 2 7 1 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 23. 27. 30. 30. 30. 29. 27. 28. 29. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 30.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.5% 8.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 17.0% 10.4% 2.9% 1.5% 6.0% 5.3% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 11.2% 6.6% 3.3% 0.5% 2.1% 5.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/25/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 43 47 52 55 55 55 54 52 53 54 58 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 44 49 52 52 52 51 49 50 51 55 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 39 44 47 47 47 46 44 45 46 50 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 30 35 38 38 38 37 35 36 37 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT