* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 48 53 55 54 54 54 54 54 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 48 53 55 54 54 54 54 54 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 37 39 40 38 36 35 33 32 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 14 9 3 2 4 12 17 21 24 28 19 18 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 2 3 4 -2 -4 0 0 2 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 106 97 87 87 97 122 225 203 242 261 279 255 262 269 260 251 242 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 129 127 133 127 124 124 123 119 118 120 116 120 120 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 131 129 127 130 121 115 115 114 112 110 111 108 112 112 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 63 65 65 63 60 61 57 55 51 54 55 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 99 99 97 89 63 22 -4 -27 -33 -42 -51 -67 -81 -83 -98 -96 200 MB DIV 17 5 -13 -5 -1 18 30 -3 -27 -29 26 -7 17 1 34 9 13 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -6 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 1 5 9 9 13 -4 11 LAND (KM) 1293 1443 1569 1674 1699 1708 1778 1840 1874 1890 1912 2006 2160 2393 2287 2071 1736 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.2 16.4 18.2 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.8 31.1 32.3 33.4 35.5 36.9 37.5 37.8 38.2 39.1 39.9 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 10 7 4 5 5 9 11 12 14 18 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 5 5 13 15 13 15 13 3 2 9 1 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 28. 30. 29. 29. 29. 29. 29. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 28.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.7% 7.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 13.8% 7.6% 1.6% 1.0% 5.5% 10.5% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% Consensus: 2.4% 9.3% 5.1% 2.6% 0.3% 2.0% 6.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 48 53 55 54 54 54 54 54 58 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 42 46 51 53 52 52 52 52 52 56 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 37 41 46 48 47 47 47 47 47 51 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 29 33 38 40 39 39 39 39 39 43 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT