* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 45 50 55 57 57 56 55 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 45 50 55 57 57 56 55 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 41 44 42 40 37 35 34 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 14 17 15 5 2 3 8 16 21 23 23 16 8 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 0 2 5 1 -2 0 1 -1 -2 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 96 102 87 79 86 99 78 192 214 250 268 255 234 227 151 126 137 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 129 131 130 128 130 125 123 121 120 118 119 118 119 123 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 129 131 130 126 126 118 114 111 112 111 112 109 110 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 64 62 62 61 63 57 58 58 57 53 52 51 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 92 94 95 98 78 37 17 -9 -32 -36 -51 -66 -78 -115 -136 -126 200 MB DIV 46 23 9 -18 -14 0 14 23 -5 -19 -3 12 2 6 -17 12 17 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -8 -7 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 0 1 4 8 10 8 3 21 LAND (KM) 1138 1272 1402 1518 1626 1731 1782 1854 1944 1981 1981 2010 2121 2288 2436 2367 2203 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 31.8 33.8 35.5 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.9 39.1 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 10 9 5 5 5 8 10 12 13 15 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 6 5 5 15 18 13 8 5 1 5 2 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 25. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. 30. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 26.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.1% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 20.4% 12.6% 4.4% 3.1% 10.2% 15.5% 10.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 6.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% Consensus: 3.5% 12.1% 6.6% 3.3% 1.1% 3.6% 8.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/24/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 36 45 50 55 57 57 56 55 55 57 59 60 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 34 43 48 53 55 55 54 53 53 55 57 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 39 44 49 51 51 50 49 49 51 53 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 37 42 44 44 43 42 42 44 46 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT