* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 52 58 62 65 69 71 73 72 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 52 58 62 65 69 71 73 72 71 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 44 48 54 59 62 63 60 55 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 8 6 14 14 24 17 5 7 4 7 13 16 18 30 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 4 -4 -3 -11 -5 1 -1 -1 0 -2 4 2 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 66 56 55 86 87 73 87 91 114 139 201 263 280 289 278 272 277 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 127 126 126 129 131 134 133 131 125 124 124 120 116 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 127 125 125 126 126 126 123 123 120 120 119 114 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 73 74 69 65 65 63 66 61 59 56 58 55 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 58 57 65 63 51 37 19 -4 -21 -48 -43 -46 -43 -41 -36 -56 200 MB DIV 11 10 24 48 64 6 10 -25 -10 -19 -23 -29 -3 3 22 -2 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -5 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 3 5 6 8 10 11 LAND (KM) 788 883 958 1021 1071 1185 1268 1331 1361 1396 1478 1649 1895 1937 1834 1796 1781 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.4 9.5 10.9 12.1 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.3 24.2 25.1 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.5 30.0 30.4 31.2 32.8 35.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 3 6 10 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 6 5 4 7 7 11 12 9 6 12 11 4 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 44. 46. 48. 47. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.4 22.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.5% 9.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 20.9% 10.8% 1.9% 1.3% 6.3% 10.6% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 4.4% 4.4% Consensus: 3.3% 14.0% 7.2% 3.4% 0.4% 2.4% 7.9% 11.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/23/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 52 58 62 65 69 71 73 72 71 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 43 49 55 59 62 66 68 70 69 68 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 38 44 50 54 57 61 63 65 64 63 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 35 41 45 48 52 54 56 55 54 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT